Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-11 8.855812 10.161206 11.567455 13.191901 15.013475 16.989826 19.293068
2026-01-18 6.747653 8.471106 10.473538 12.959637 15.950041 19.417108 23.725991
2026-01-25 5.756514 7.660223 9.981950 12.998644 16.788806 21.365002 27.277104
2026-02-01 5.017066 7.036749 9.609295 13.089351 17.631622 23.311941 30.898521
2026-02-08 4.387138 6.448948 9.178281 13.003315 18.163940 24.815468 33.954657
2026-02-15 3.861888 5.931241 8.770258 12.880488 18.595731 26.165914 36.835193
2026-02-22 3.489723 5.579117 8.540428 12.955348 19.262246 27.821083 40.157429
2026-03-01 3.251240 5.391385 8.515380 13.297321 20.295106 29.997778 44.262062
2026-03-08 2.899041 4.992221 8.141567 13.093669 20.519332 31.040165 46.816161
2026-03-15 2.509348 4.492205 7.569410 12.541987 20.183917 31.248084 48.168920
2026-03-22 2.373317 4.386621 7.591335 12.886210 21.186678 33.415078 52.413266
2026-03-29 2.230631 4.254521 7.557092 13.132813 22.043141 35.391574 56.445299
2026-04-05 2.028500 4.004737 7.318203 13.045013 22.388488 36.639541 59.482446
2026-04-12 1.838991 3.758160 7.064071 12.911961 22.649564 37.765173 62.377667
2026-04-19 1.694176 3.576961 6.903590 12.917009 23.121606 39.221419 65.818147
2026-04-26 1.579023 3.439298 6.806450 13.019030 23.750868 40.941655 69.725778
2026-05-03 1.446619 3.254301 6.608771 12.929319 24.047705 42.134585 72.834702
2026-05-10 1.323015 3.073577 6.403301 12.808513 24.278264 43.219903 75.799917
2026-05-17 1.236351 2.959010 6.311021 12.882514 24.842410 44.865125 79.719639
2026-05-24 1.189064 2.922205 6.363248 13.222975 25.886386 47.341557 85.081534
2026-05-31 1.083177 2.748064 6.134255 13.020265 25.948358 48.162821 87.721243
2026-06-07 0.950923 2.500595 5.738766 12.471328 25.349712 47.825453 88.393066
2026-06-14 0.919568 2.479536 5.801106 12.813842 26.401983 50.370805 94.034762